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Paperback. Pub Date :2013-01-05 Publisher: Penguin Books US Every time we choose a route to work. decide whether to go on a second date. or set aside money for a rainy day. we are making a prediction about the future . Yet from the global financial crisis to 911 to the Fukushima disaster. we often fail to foresee hugely significant events. In The Signal and the Noise. the New York Times political forecaster and statistics guru Nate Silver explores the art of prediction. revealing how we can all build a better crystal ball.In his quest to distinguish the true signal from a universe of noisy data. Silver visits hundreds of expert forecasters. in fields ranging from the stock market to the poker table. from earthquakes to terrorism. What lies behind their success And why do so many predictions still fail By analysing the rare prescient forecasts. and applying a more quantitativ...
About the Author
Nathaniel Read "Nate" Silver (born January 13, 1978) is an American statistician and writer who analyzes baseball and elections. He is currently the editor-in-chief of ESPN's blog and a Special Correspondent for ABC News. Silver first gained public recognition for developing PECOTA, a system for forecasting the performance and career development of Major League Baseball players, which he sold to and then managed for Baseball Prospectus from 2003 to 2009. In 2007, writing under the pseudonym "Poblano", Silver began to publish analyses and predictions related to the 2008 United States presidential election. At first this work appeared on the political blog Daily Kos, but in March 2008 Silver established his own website, . By summer of that year, after he revealed his identity to his readers, he began to appear as an electoral and political analyst in national print, online, and cable news media. The accuracy of his November 2008 presidential election predictions - he correctly predicted the winner of 49 of the 50 states - won Silver further attention and commendation. The only state he missed was Indiana, which went for Barack Obama by one percentage point. He correctly predicted the winner of all 35 U.S. Senate races that year. In April 2009, he was named one of The World's 100 Most Influential People by In 2010, Silver's . blog was licensed for publication by . The newly renamed blog, , first appeared in The Times on August 25, 2010. In 2012 and 2013, won Webby Awards as the "Best Political Blog" from the International Academy of Digital Arts and Sciences. Silver's book, , was published in September 2012. It subsequently reached best seller list for nonfiction, and was named by Amazon. com as the #1 best nonfiction book of 2012. won the 2013 Phi Beta Kappa Award in Science. The book has been published in eight languages. In the 2012 United States presidential election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, he correctly predicted the winner of all 50 states and the District of Columbia. That same year, Silver's predictions of U.S. Senate races were correct in 31 of 33 states; he predicted Republican victory in North Dakota and Montana, where Democrats won.In July 2013, it was revealed that Silver and his blog would depart and join ESPN. In his new role at ESPN, Silver would become editor-in-chief of the site. ESPN would own the site and the brand. The ESPN-owned launched on March 17, 2014. Silver's lead article explained that the site would focus on a broad range of subjects under the general rubric of "data journalism".
